Tropical storm Dorian forms in the eastern Atlantic.
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Tropical storm Dorian forms in the eastern Atlantic.
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Dorian could bring tropical storm conditions to the Leeward Islands Sunday and may approach the southeastern U.S. late next week.
A tropical system that moved off the coast of Africa last weekend became a tropical storm Wednesday and strengthened a bit Wednesday night into Thursday morning over the central Atlantic.
A slightly north of west path is forecast with Dorian through this weekend into early next week, most likely taking the center of feature just north of the Lesser Antilles.
Conditions in the Leeward Islands this weekend will depend upon the exact path and strength of the tropical storm. There is a possibility of gusty, drenching squalls developing in the area Sunday into Monday, even if the system just misses to the north.
Many of the islands of the northern Caribbean have received above-average rainfall since April. San Juan, P.R., has received nearly 44 inches of rain since April 1. A tropical disturbance brought nearly 10 inches of rain to the area recently, during July 17-18, so a system bringing a dose of heavy rainfall would bring an elevated risk of flash flooding and mudslides.
According to AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, 'The vast area of dry air surrounding the system to start the week has diminished and would tend to favor strengthening during the middle of the week.'
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Tropical Storm Dorian became less organized and may weaken as it moves across open waters of the Atlantic, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
Dorian, with maximum sustained winds of 50 miles (80 kilometers) per hour, was about 1,425 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and moving west-northwest at 20 mph, according to a center advisory before 5 a.m. in New York.
“Slow weakening is expected during the next day or so,” according to the advisory. The storm is forecast to turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed through Saturday. The center’s five-day projection has Dorian passing north of or over Puerto Rico on July 29.
Dorian is the fourth tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. From 1966 to 2009, the fourth system typically formed by Aug. 23, according to the hurricane center.
Commodities traders follow Atlantic systems because they can affect oil and natural gas production as well as orange crops. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico is home to about 6 percent of U.S. natural gas output, 23 percent of oil production and more than 40 percent of petroleum refining capacity, according to the Energy Department. The Bay of Campeche, at the southern end of the Gulf, is where Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico’s state-owned oil company, produces most of that country’s crude.
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The latest advisory on Tropical Storm Dorian has been issued from the National Hurricane Center. It is maintaining winds of 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian, 5 a.m. Friday advisory
OUTLOOK: Tropical Storm Dorian is projected to arrive near the southern Bahamas on Tuesday. Dorian's maximum sustained winds reached 60 mph on Thursday but have since dropped by 10 mph. The projected path continues to aim toward the Bahamas, Cuba or Florida.
WHAT FLORIDA CAN EXPECT: It's too early to say whether Florida will be affected.
PARTICULARS: Dorian is expected to continue experiencing moderate shear and dry air, storm-weakening factors, during the next 2 to 4 days.
For now, the system is projected to have maximum winds of about 50 mph on Tuesday.
Dorian currently is a compact storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 60 miles from its core.
LOCATION: 1,425 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands or some 2,500 miles southeast of South Florida.
STRENGTH: 50 mph sustained winds.
MOVEMENT: Northwest at 20 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian is becoming less organized as it moves across the Atlantic, far from land.
The storm's maximum sustained winds early Friday are near 50 mph (85 kph) and the U.S. National Hurricane Center says the storm is expected to begin slowly weakening over the next day or so.
Dorian is centered about 1,425 miles (2,290 kilometers) east of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving west-northwest near 20 mph (32 kph).
Meanwhile in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Flossie has strengthened a little. That storm's maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 kph). Flossie is centered about 1,640 miles (2,640 kilometers) east of Hilo, Hawaii, and is moving west near 18 mph (30 kph).
There are currently no land threats from either storm.
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Tropical Storm Dorian, 5 a.m. Thursday advisory
OUTLOOK: After emerging in the eastern Atlantic on Wednesday, Tropical Storm Dorian is projected to arrive near Puerto Rico on Monday. The storm strengthened slightly overnight and currently has top winds of 60 mph.
WHAT FLORIDA CAN EXPECT: It's too early to say whether Florida or the U.S. coast will be affected.
PARTICULARS: Earlier, the National Hurricane Center had said Dorian would have to battle dry air and cooler ocean temperatures.
However, in the most recent advisory, senior hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart said the system should move into an area of low wind shear in about four days, allowing it to strengthen.
Dorian is forecast to aim generally west across the Atlantic, as it is being guided by high pressure north of it. Beyond that, some models predict it will turn northwest.
With Dorian, the 2013 hurricane season is about a month ahead of schedule, as the fourth named storm on average forms on Aug. 23.
LOCATION: 700 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands or more than 3,000 southeast of South Florida.
STRENGTH: 60 mph sustained winds.
MOVEMENT: Northwest at 17 mph
OTHER SYSTEMS: A low-pressure system has developed in the Atlantic about 400 miles east of Bermuda, and it could strengthen in the next few days as it moves northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian has gained some strength as it moves across the Atlantic, far from land.
The storm's maximum sustained winds increased to near 60 mph early Thursday.
Dorian is centered about 700 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of west Africa, and is moving west-northwest near 17 mph.
Currently, there are no land threats from the storm.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Flossie formed far out over the Pacific. Flossie's maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with slow strengthening expected over the next day or so. The storm is centered about 1,045 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California and is moving west-northwest near 15 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dorian is weakening some as it moves across the open Atlantic, far from land.
The storm's maximum sustained winds were near 50 mph (80 kph) late Thursday.
Dorian is centered about 1,550 miles (2494 kilometers) east of the Northern Leeward Islands, off the coast of west Africa, and is moving west-northwest near 20 mph (32 kph).
Currently, there are no land threats from the storm.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Flossie is spinning in the Pacific, also far from land. Flossie's maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (80 kph) but is expected to weaken. The storm is centered about 1,355 miles (2180.56 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California and is moving farther out into the open ocean.
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