The Russia and #Ukrainewar is taking the world towards recession, with the growing impact on food, energy and fertiliser prices, and developing nations among the worst affected. Ukraine and Russia would likely see significant contractions, Europe, and the United States would see slower growth, whereas China will also see relatively sharp slowdown due to Covid, inflation and a pre-existing real estate crisis. So, are we going into recession in 2022?

The increased geopolitical risks induced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine will weigh adversely on global economic conditions throughout 2022. Such effects are estimated in our model to reduce #GDP and boost inflation significantly, exacerbating the policy trade-offs facing central banks around the world.

As per the IMF forecasts, global growth in 2022 is at 4.4%, but these projections are being revised downwards due to conflict and the fallout from sanctions. The US economy is likely to slow in 2022 and 2023 but will narrowly avoid a recession as the Federal Reserve implements its rate-tightening plan to curb inflation, as per the International Monetary Fund.

Experts are now forecasting on the type of recession to arrive, whether it’ll be a V-shaped recovery, which is quick, with a sharp decline to a bottom followed by a dramatic rise. In a U-shaped recovery, on the other hand, the economy spends longer at the bottom and then gradually rebounds.

Whereas, a W-recovery is when the economy passes through a recession and into recovery and then immediately enters another recession, and K-shaped means some parts of the economy recover more quickly than others. Whereas the Economists are watching the economy closely and many are boosting their odds of a recession occurring in the near term.

Citigroup, assessing global economic growth over the next 18 months, sees a 50% probability of a global recession happening, while Goldman Sachs has put the odds of a recession for the U.S. in th.