The new points system for qualifying horses for the Kentucky Derby appears to have served its purpose. The race is full of horses with the preferred pedigree and running style to handle the distance. While this has served to restore some purity to the race, it has also made the race tougher to handicap because many of the horses now excluded by the points system were easy toss-outs for handicappers. This field of 20 is very even. A case could be made for every one of them to win.

Orb was made the morning-line favorite, in a bit of a surprise, over Verrazano, who many thought would be made the favorite after remaining perfect in the Wood Memorial. In that race, Verrazano got the job done, but appeared to show some distance limitations, giving up ground to Vyjack and Normandy Invasion in the deep stretch. Verrazano is expected to try to win the Derby on the lead, and there will be horses that attempt to keep up with him in the early going. He will be challenged. Orb likes to come off the pace, so he could well be the one to chop down Verrazano in the stretch. He has been training well at Churchill Downs and looks great. He also comes into the Derby on four straight wins.
After these top two horses, there is not much of a drop in quality to the next tier of contenders. Three of those horses come into the Derby following impressive wins in Grade I qualifying races. Goldencents is part-owned by Rick Pitino, coach of the NCAA basketball champion Louisville Car.